What is the significance of fire in Faulkner's Barn Burning Essay

What is the significance of assoil in Faulkners Barn Burning - Essay practice sessionsis, and such practice is still in continuance today where individuals and scholars are attempting to analyze a piece of literature to identify different symbolisations, themes, and moral lessons from it. This writing is attempting a similar attempt of analyzing one of the most popular works of William Faulkner Barn Burning (Faulkner, pp. 1-47), and will endeavor to identify the significance and representation of the fire in this tale of acceptance and self-discovery.Brief review of this piece of literature has indicated that Sarty has played the leading role in this story while his father depicts an unhelpful role due to, and in reject of the upper classes of the Civil War. In specific, Abner Snopes is father in this story that cherishes the moment of destruction of others barns that he burns to protest against aristocrats (Faulkner, pp. 11-12). In this story, the author has attempted to portr ay different aspects of the relationship of father and son, as the leading character of the story confronts two sides his fathers and loyaltys.In such theme, the author has played a significant role by using the symbolized notion of fire at various places of the story. Although fire is a factual object, however, the notion of fire symbolizes anger of the father, as well as his impudence and effrontery for property, and specifically, barns of other people. In this way, the author has attempted to use the symbol of fire to explain hidden messages in the story, as the approach is clear from the very start of the story that begins with fire of a barn and ends with the same.In individualised opinion, brief review of the story indicated that leading characters obsessive affection to his family (Millgate, pp. 271), especially to his father is also related to the notion of fire, as story shows that Sarty trusted his father in the beginning and continued to think that fires will end soon h owever, the story ended with another fire from his father. In

Human Resources course essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Human Resources course - Essay ExampleMaslows hierarchy of involve theory is one of the well-nigh popular theories of motivation. Many organizations across the globe formulate their strategies of motivating employees drawing second from Maslows hierarchy of needs theory. According to Maslow, there are quintet needs that are fundamental and commonly felt by completely people. The needs identified by Maslow include physiological needs, safety needs, love and belongingness needs, egotism needs, and the need to self-actualize (Cherry, 2013). Maslow ar kitchen stoved these needs in a hierarchical order so that when placed upon one another, they take the form of a pyramid. Needs range from essential to optimal as one moves from the base to the top of the pyramid. Thus, physiological needs like food and air are the most fundamental needs as an individual cannot survive without them whereas the need to self-actualize is the least essential. Maslows hierarchy of needs theory asserts tha t an individual does not feel a higher-level need unless all lower-level needs in the pyramid have been satisfied. Considering the issue from the perspective of Maslows hierarchy of needs theory, money is not the only factor that can help the employees accomplish their needs. For example, lets suppose an employee who feels the need of love and belongingness. There is a company that offers him a handsome salary but requires him to stay out-of-door from his family at a far-away station. Another company offers him a lower salary but provides the employee with the facility to work from home. The employee would go for the second company rather than the early because staying and working from home would fulfill his love and belongingness needs.There are a variety of ways in which managers can motivate employees. These include providing employees with medical and try-on facilities, and offering employees more leaves as a sign of appreciation so that they can stay longer with their famili es. Many

Behaviorist lesson plan Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Behaviorist lesson plan - Essay ExampleThe behavior may be attributed to hyper activeness, curiosity and enthusiasm of new-fangled students.Young childrens brains are maturing, and they do not curb the same capability to control themselves as adults do. As a teacher I should, therefore, ascertain the importance of teaching children abilities for controlling their behavior while appreciating that they need ongoing guidance and my supervision to stay safe. The child may be overwhelmed, close bring and, hence, lash out physically or verbally to the teacher for not placing him in the first position. As the teacher I, thus, need to invest time, effort, compassion and effort to assist the child handle the feelings constructively.Children must be able to identify early interventions to enhance student behavior difficulties in the primitive years at the end of the lesson. The science students reactive aggressive behavior depicts its self through unplanned retaliation by the child due to organism denied the first position when going into the lab. One element key in assessing change in aggressive behavior is teacher-students relationships.Behaviorist principles, such as developmental cascade theory have been used to explain persistent problems in early behavior. Theorists propose early behavior drawbacks in early schooling have cascading results that negatively influence subsequent psychosocial functioning and school success. Interventions such as Good Behavior Game that target behavioral difficulties at an early old age attempts to prevent the negative

The Count of Monte Cristo by Alexandre Dumas Essay Example for Free

The Count of three-card monte Cristo by Alexandre Dumas EssayThe word revenge is defined in the dictionary as get satisfaction by deliberately causing injury in return for a person or oneself suffering. Governments and countries often come across revenge by fighting, like with after the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor the U.S government gave an order to bomb Hiroshima and Nagasaki as revenge. Kings and dictators also prevail revenge by invading other countries, and even the ordinary spate, like us, take revenge on smaller issues. exclusively is it morally justified? The dissolve to this question is largely depends on whom you ask, and it may vary according to the concepts and values that he/her was raised on it differs among different peoples, cultures and traditions. In this essay I will try to answer this question from the point of the story The Count of three-card monte Cristo by Alexandre Dumas. In order to discuss the revenge issue of this book let us pose by a brie f summery of the story.Edmond Dantes, a young sailor, gets a reward to be a Captain of a ship, but unfortunately quatern men arranged that he will be imprisoned for a crime he did not commit. The four men are Danglars, Villefort, Fernand Mondego, and Caderousse. Dantes has spent 14 years in prison and then he escaped with a friend that taught him humany things and gave him a map to a treasure. The friend (Abbe) died, and when Dantes finds the treasure he becomes rich and famous and is known as The Count Of Monte Cristo. During all of this period he didnt stop thinking about revenging his enemy. He just waited for the absolute condemnation and now it came. His mission is to revenge the people who imprisoned him and help the people who helped him.The Count Of Monte Cristos opinion about revenge and death is that people who made other people suffer for a long long time should not die quick, in other words you dont just cancel out them, you torture them so that they will die slowl y and painfully. Dantes wants them to be miserable and give them a hard time for a long period of time just like he suffered for a long time in jail. That is why he did not hire anyone to kill his enemies or kill them himself.This is turn up in the following quote that The Count Of Monte Cristo said If a man has tortured and killed your father, your mother, your sweetheart, one of those beings who leave an eternal emptiness and a continuously bleeding wound when they are torn from your heartdo you thinksociety has given you sufficient reparation because the man who made you undergo long years of moral and emotional suffering has undergone a few seconds of physical pain? For slow, profound, infinite, and eternal suffering. Id try to avenge myself by inflicting similar suffering-an eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth. This destination sentence in the quote, is a sentence from the bible and I think that by telling us this, the author wants to show us that even in old time, in a book that suppose to teach us about life, revenge was taken and was not immoral. This sentence also serves as substantially as a justification for him to carry out his revenge plans.Monte Cristo was very smart. He looked for the weak points of each person of whom he wanted to take revenge of, and there he hit. He learned a lot about his enemies after he escaped from prison. For example we know that Danglars loves money, so Monte Cristo arranged for him to father no money, he destroyed him financially. Another example is Fernand Mondegos case. After Fernand reaches a high position and became Count de Morcerf, Monte Cristo told the public that Morcerf is a traitor, and by this act he wrecked him socially. We also learned from the story, about Morcerfs love and devotion to his family. This was another target for Monte Cristo and he succeeded in separating him from his family. Fernand was so miserable that he committed suicide.Villffort, for my opinion is the most egoist person I hav e ever heard of (even though he is fictional). He would do anything and sacrifice anyone to his desire. One Quote in the book even stated so I would sacrifice anything to my ambition, even my own father. Because of his political craving, Villfort was eager to have an innocent man imprisoned for a whole life time. I think that in this case revenge is very morally justified, because for a man such as Villefort, who was willing to put an innocent man in prison, then revenge is very morally justified. Danglars framed Dantes (wrote the letters), because he was envy and grasping at him because he gets the reward to be the captain of the Pharon (ship), and also at his spirit and self confidence Dantes had.I think that it is very obvious why Mondego framed Dantes. He was jealous of Dantes Fiancee, Mercedes. Gaspard Caderousse, was to greedy. Monte Cristo actually gave Caderousse a chance tochange and become honest, but Caderousee didnt. He was killed while trying to rob the Counts house. B ut Dantes was not revenging all the time he was a moral, good, and generous person. For example when the Abbe was dying, Dantes did not abandon him. Which shows us that Edmond Dantes is a good man.As we can see, Monte Cristo took his revenge in a way that didnt involve any act that was illegal. I think that revenge is morally justified in this particular story, because he did suffer a great deal, and there was a very good reason for his revenge. In every day life taking revenge is approximately childish, but not taking it is surrendering. In my opinion revenge should be taken, and a person should be punished for a bad thing he did. The power of revenge is found in everyone of us, but we all have to know how to use it wisely.

A Taste of Honey Play Analysis Essay Example for Free

A Taste of Honey Play Analysis EssayA Taste of Honey is a play written by Shelagh Delaney. Shelagh Delaney was born on the 5th of November, 1939 in Salford, Lancashire. At eleven years old she failed to fall in the examination that would allow her to enter a grammar school, and she went to a secondary school named Broughton. She was accepted into the grammar school at a later stage as she has turn up herself to be intelligent. She was seen to be a late developer but by this time she had lost interest in her academic progress and so therefore did non continue on to higher education. Her kickoff play was A Taste of Honey, which she wrote when she was 18, was accepted by a Joan Littlewood for production by Theatre Workshop Company. The first opening of the play was on the 27th of May at the Theatre Royal in East capital of the United Kingdom. A Taste of Honey was transferred to West London on the 10the of February. For this play she received the Foyles New Play Award and an Arts Council Bursary.In the 1950s England was felling the effects of World War II, so when Shelagh Delaney wrote the play she had go through World War II. Also because of the World War only lower/ middle class groups would watch the play. Another factor that has caused the play, A Taste of Honey, to be a great success is that it contained issues that were never openly discussed and were consider to be illegal. For example paederasticity- this was never discussed openly and was considered very bad, racism- Black wad or people that were coloured were also considered lower class.The mood, tension and suspense had been built up during the play. In Act 1 Scene 2 Jo meets with her boyfriend and during a chat he asks her to attach him and she accepts his proposal even though he will be away on his ship for six months and so she will use up to wait before he mess marry him. She is given a ring by her fiance which she wears nigh her neck instead of on her finger. This is because she does nt exigency her mother to see the ring. Back in the ap trickment Helen tells Jo that she is going to marry son of a bitch. turncock enters and Jo starts to shout at twain Helen and Peter, while Helen is defending and attacking both Peter and Jo. Peter, however, is ignoring or criticising Jo and flattering Helen. Helen and Peter leave and Jos boyfriend arrives and keeps her company. On Helens wedding day Jo is feeling sick and cannot attend her mothers wedding. Helen accordingly sees the ring around Jos neck and starts scolding Jo violently for call of marrying this young. Jo then asks active her father and Helen explains, and then runs off to her wedding.There is a lot that happens in this chance both Helen and Jo plan on getting wed. And this has built up a lot of tension. But there moods with each other getting married are not positive. Helen is not happy with Jo considering marriage at such a young age. Jo is also not happy that Helen is marrying Peter but is unable to do anything about it. The timing of this happening is also coincidental as Helen and Jo both were planning to marry at the same time this cause the audience to build up suspense. The setting is ended with Helen leaving Jo behind this will leave the audience looking of what is going to happen. The scene is ended with suspense so that the audience is egger for the next scene.Act 2 scene 1 begins and Jos pregnancy is quite obvious and her boyfriend has not retrieveed. Jo and Geof, a boy she met in a fairground, return to Jos apartment. The scene beginning with Jo being obviously pregnant causes drama for the audience also Jos black boyfriend has not returned from his sale this make the audience moot that the boyfriend will never return. Jo is currently living alone and is working in a shoe shop in the day and working at a bar in the evenings to pay the rent. This has set the mood of Jos environment to be busy and Jo seems to be very tired. As when she returns from the fair she falls onto her waiting room as she is tired, she as says that she has to be up before half past seven. This makes us think that going to work is very necessary for her and she is finding it difficult.Geof, an art student, who had been throw out of his lodgings, says that the reason he was throw out was because he was behind on the rent. Jo challenges him and keeps on persisting that he is lying as she k directs he is homosexual. She even states that I always needed to know about people like you she offends Geof with her insensitive mocking and curiosity. She finally says that Geof should tell her why he was thrown out (even though she knows why she wants to hear it from Geof) or get out Geof heads for the door to leave and is stopped by Jo begging for him to assuage, Geof Dont go. Dont go. Geof Im sorry.Please stay. I think that this generates that Jo wants some company as she is alone and finding it difficult to pay for the apartment. Jo is not threatened by Geof staying in her ap artment as he is homosexual and is therefore not physically attracted to her she also says, Thats why Im letting you stay here. You wont start anything. When Geof is with Jo the mood is peaceful and is not chaotic. Also, Jos character is different she is not as aggressive as before. The audience are fire in Geof as they want to know facts about him because of his homosexual personality. It might be that Geof was thrown out because he was homosexual and he doesnt want to admit that he is gay, also in that period of time homosexuality was wrong.After Jo apologises they start lecture and tell each other that they like each other and they are becoming closer and their relationship develops. There mood has changed and they are now talking about each other and asking questions about there past. Geof brings up the subject of the baby and Jos mother, he thinks that Jo should tell her mother about her pregnancy. Jo replied Why? this shows that she whitewash doesnt think that her mother sh ould have nothing to do with Jos baby. Geof then goes on to ask what kind of woman is she and Jo replies by saying shes richGeof says that she should be interested in her mothers bullion as she will be needing it later for the baby, as the baby will be costing Jo more money then she can afford. When Geof says that she will need baby clothes a cot and a pram, Jo replies by saying, Im not planning monumental plans for this baby or dreaming big dreams. This shows that Jo has thought that she will look by and by the baby with the barest amount of money. Jos character is strange in comparison to other mothers. Most mothers will be hoping for the scoop for their children. Jo, however, is not interested she has no idea to look after a child as she has never been looked after by her mother very well. I found it strange when Geof says, Youre feeling a bit depressed, Jo. He was telling Joe how she felt and this shows that Geof is already having feelings for Jo.When Geof offers Jo a cigare tte she declines it, she said she only smoked to disturb her mother. I think that this shows that Jo did things to annoy her mother to get revenge. Jos character to towards her mother does not change through out the play. Geof asks Jo about her black boyfriend when Jo answers the questions she is magnanimous false answers. I think that she has forgotten about the boy and has moved on with her life. Geof sings two nursery rhymes this lightens the mood and shows that Geof is still childish and young in heart. When Geoffrey and Jo go to bed Jo says, Youre just like a big sister to me. This shows that Jo has no sexual attractions towards Geof and sees him more like a friendly sister who looks after her.Jo comments on the childrens appearance, look at those filthy children. I think this is because as she is pregnant she is thinking about children and looking at other children on the streets. She then says that is there parents fault, but then says, His mother ought not to be allowed. J o is referring to her own mother in a way as Jo was treated badly and sometimes thinks that her mother should not of had her.Geof is homosexual but still tries to kiss Jo and even asks to marry her. Jo declines, is it shown that Jo likes Geoffrey but she is not sexually attracted to him. I think that the reason Geof asked Jo to marry him is because he want to be normal or a least be treated normal. So if he gets married people wont think that he is homosexual and as Jo has a baby it will save him the trouble. Geof knows that if he stays with Jo his life is heading nowhere, but he wants to stay with Jo, Id kinda be dead than away from you. Geoffrey has grown a strong feeling for Jo and visa-versa, however, Jo likes him as a big sister.Helen enters the room and the mood has changed, that tension between Jo and Helen is now strong. Helen is not surprised that Jo is in bed, she thinks that Jo should still be going to work in her condition. Helens character is still expecting much of Jo even when Helen is sick she would ask Jo to do the work. Jo doesnt even welcome her mother politely, What blew you in? Helen assumes that Geoffrey is Jos boyfriend. While Helen and Jo designate Geof enters defending Jo but is shut up by both the ladies. Even with Jo in pregnancy Helen is still as violent she is throwing threats at Jo, Ill give you such a bloody good hiding in a minute then(prenominal) Helen knows that she was right and told Jo not to get married at such an early age but gets into a mess none the less. Helen then says that she didnt come to argue but actually came to give money but Jo doesnt want it even when she needs it not from her mother anyway. Helen does care about her daughter but doesnt show it although she does show it more then Jo, Look at your arms. Theyre like a couple of stalks she doesnt want her daughter to be unhealthy.When Peter enters, the mood changes everyone is concentrating on him and want him out of the room. It is obvious that Peter is not i n love with Helen and it maybe that she is not in love with Peter it might be that she only married him for his money. When Drunken Peter enters he insults the other three, when he sees that Helen is giving his money away he is angry with Helen, Giving my money away again? Peter then takes his money back from Helen and therefore contradicting Helens offer of a home to Jo. When Peter leaves he calls Helen to com with her but she says no. Helen is unsure of her choice so asks Jo if she should stay with her and Jo replies no.I can see that Helen was unsure to make her decision and when she ask Jo and she said no she yelled out yes to Peter. When Peter asked Helen if shes coming she replied no, however, Peter still insists that Helen come with her. I think that even when he has lost interest in Helen he doesnt want to let her go, this is just like him and his money. Helens persist act of affection is shown, she tells Geof to make sure that she goes to the clinic regularly. As soon as H elen leaves the mood has changed, it is back to that jokey mood with Jo and Geof. This is shown when Geof says that at least Helen left her some money but Jo says that Peter took it back but she has a cigarette for him. Geof replies, Oh, smashing I have noted that their moods change and they are back to their original state.This scene is one of the most relevant scenes in the whole play it shows the relationship between Jo and Geof from when it first started to when they have a strong bond. It also is the first scene with homosexuality init so this is very appealing to the audience. It also is the scene when Helen finds out that Jo is pregnant and is therefore quite dramatic. This scene is very significant to the play as without this the scene it would not be as effective.

Applying Leadership Theories Essay Example for Free

Applying Leadership Theories EssayAccording to Wikipedia, leadershiphip has been described as a process of social influence or persuasion by which wiz person can enlist the aid and support of others in the accomplishment of a common task. Studies of leadership have produced theories involving traits, situational interaction, function, behavior, power, vision, values, charisma, and intelligence, among others. (http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership). There argon various leadership theories that have been created that encompass how a leader relates to others within and outside of the educational organization. There a six that were specifically proposed by Martin, Wright, and Danzig (2003) that are appropriate when describing educational leaders.They are Directive, Participative, cooperative, Coaching, Affiliative, and Laissez-Faire. A leader can possess all of these styles depending on the current situation. For example, a leader can uptake a Directive Approach when dealing wi th low assessment scores especially when being pressured from his or her superiors, when deadlines are not being met, or when a teacher or staff has neglected their duties. But also display a Participative or Collaborative style by taking input from others.The leadership style that is displayed can have a negative and positive influence on the condition society and the organization. It is very important to understand the styles indivially and in detail to know which ones are more and less effective in your environment. The school where I currently execution just received a new principal, but prior to her there was head teacher R, who had inherited her position as the leader because her entire career was construct at the school. She started off her teaching career there, three years later was advanced to Reading Coach, and then was assigned as Vice top dog. The Superintendent, formal principal, and others matte that she was the best fit for the job because of her years spent th ere and her experience as Vice pencil lead. Prior to her receiving the role of prinicpal, we were excelling in reading, writing, and mathematics.The principal prior to pencil lead R had moved us from a failing grade of an F to an excelling grade of an A. drumhead R indeed knew the ends and outs of the school because she was trained and mentored by our previous principal, Principal P. Not knowing that once the school was completely turned over to Principal R, we will be on a locomote trip to failure. Principal R took a Directive approach, very similar to the Autocratic Leadership Style. By her having experience, she insisted on doing it all herself even though she had an arrangement team which consisted of a unrighteousness principal, reading and math coach, and an ESE liaison. She felt that the ultimate decision in any situation should be hers no matter of whom or what it affected. Research states, that Autocratic Leaders often maintain authority by force, intimidations, thr eats, rewards, punishment, or position (http//ctb.ku.edu/en/tablecontents/sub_section_main_1122.aspx). If you challenged Principal R in any way, regardless of how simple or how large the issue may have been your evaluation would be affected. Principal R used this role for her own personal gains.Principal R had built many personal relationships prior to her taking on the leadership role, those relationships were soon affected when she became principal. Favoritism became a common word nigh the school. Things that we thought we would never get away with, was done often by the people in Principal Rs circle. This leadership style brought a negative image to the school. The morale went down and teachers lost their drive for teaching. Our school grade went from an A to a C, then to a B to an F. Principal R was transferred to another school where we hope her style would change for the benefit of the vision of the school. While under the leader of Principal R, we also had Vice Principal E, who was a very sweet person with more than 16 years of experience in the education field. Our school was denominate for having struggling readers which put more accountability upon the teachers. Regardless of what issues the students had years prior or even home structure that affected their abilities to read, we were held accountable for them if they were below ordinary or even failing.Vice Principal E shared many strategies with us that were very beneficial to our students. Her education specialty was ESE and autism we were able to use those same strategies to assist our students. Vice Principal E displayed a Coaching Leadership style also very similar to an Instructional Leadership style. Her main concern was teaching and learning and assist us in relaying information in a way that the students comprehended. Instructional leadership focuses on modeling, monitoring, professional conference and discussion (Bush, 2002). She mentored us on what routes we should use to assist our s tudents. She increased our confidence and also our test scores. When the results came in and we seen how much gains our grade level had shown, Vice Principal E took no credit, even though it was all because of her. She remained in the mentor role and assisted us in anything we may have needed.Vice Principal E was surplused to another school due to budget issues and was missed dearly when she departed. We are currently under the leadership of Principal K, which is the true reason wherefore I am pursing my masters degree. Principal K is a new principal, but has 12 years experience as a vice principal in secondary education. Principal K is a true leader that models and motivates others to accomplish goals, while at the same time encouraging others to transaction toward their own professional goals. Principal K, came ready to defecate but with little knowledge of what direction to start. Principal K created groups of those teachers and staff, whom prior had experience at the school t o assist her with understanding the vision and desegregating the data.Once Principal K understood the vision and the direction of where the school should be headed, she quickly took the Collaborative approach, also know as the Democratic Leadership style. She involved the faculty, staff, and stakeholders in the decision making process. Even though the final decision would be ultimately made by Principal K, she allowed everyone to be a part of the process. She allowed them to have the sense of belonging of being a part of the team. She encourages participation, values our opinions, group discussions, and motivates us to become leaders as well. Principal Ks leadership style provides direction and guidance.She states often that even though her title is principal her job description is to work for us and whatever we need to give the students a quality education, she will make sure it is provided. Overall, leadership styles is the manner and approach of providing direction, creating visi ons, implementing and acting on plans, and actuate people to excel beyond their comfort zone. Leaders styles will vary based on situations. A leader does not strictly lean toward one style, however one may seem to be dominate over another, but it all depends on the situation at hand. My goal is to use the styles that are most effective and meant to strengthen the performance of the teacher, staff and students and also the styles that will bring improvement on student achievement.References.http//ctb.ku.edu/en/tablecontents/sub_section_main_1122.aspx http//www.leadership-with-you.com/directive-leadership.html Bush, Tony 2003. Theories of Educational Management, 3rd edn. capital of the United Kingdom Sage.

The Future of Japans Economy

The Future of japans EconomyWhere will lacquer be in 20 years?SUMMARY long economic prognosticate is still as difficult as ever. Typical previous long-term medical prognosiss have proved to be on average forth by as much as 33%. In the expose day unsettled political and economic climate forecasting economic prospective of a country has become even more difficult. lacquers economy declined during 1998-2003 period, making the economic pundits wonder if japan would be sufficient to raise its economy. Signifi piece of asst appendage during the last twain years shows that Japans economy cannot be written saturnine that easily.Japan has many economic factors reenforcement the likely hood of Japans continued economic growth everyplace the adjoining 20 years. On the other hand emergence of china as the third largest economic power, its increasing sh are in world economy, Japans declining working race, huge home(prenominal) debt, rising energy prices and precarious world politics could jeopardize the economic growth.Japan need to modify its tax structure and reduce the burden of debts. Recent elections over the decision on privatization of the postal system shows that Japan is prepared to make tough decisions to keep its economy on track.It appears that Japan is already preparing to be a part of the supremacy of the bare-assly emerging economic superpowers. The inter-dependence of the economies will ensure that Japan will continue to make economic progress. An economic cultivation rate of 1.8% over the future(a) 20 years appears to be certainly achiev equal to(p) for Japan.INTRODUCTIONThe post war years solelyowed Japan to concentrate on economic development. With nearly no defense expenditure, Japan was able to devote nearly one third of its GNP to investments during 1953-63 Angus Madison, 2005. The government policies of investment in education, pains and research and development started intent fruit and the average yearbook growth rate du ring 1960s remained around 11% per annum.The government policies favored encouraging savings, promoting investments, supporting newly emerging industry and promoting exports. Between 1965 and 1970 average growth rate was 11.1% (Financial statistics of Japan, Ministry of Finance, 2005)gross domestic product Growth in real terms**GDP Growth %1960 8.81965 9.21970 11.11975 4.51980 2.8The steady growth rate of closely 10% per annum helped Japan overtake Federal Republic of Germany in terms of GNP by 1968 to become 2nd only to United States of America. The 1973 petroleum crisis came as an economic shock to Japan. The second oil price increase of 1979 meant that the oil prices which were around $12.75 a barrel in 1974 increased nearly by ccc% to $34 a barrel in 1981 Nakamura, 2005. Japan, being al close to totally dependent on imported oil reacted quickly by adopting a policy of monetary constraints and improved its energy efficiency to stay competitive and the decline in exports in 1980 -2 were recovered by 1984 proving that Japan has the ability to bounce back.The two decades following the Japans meteoric muster up were the years of globalization. 1980-2000 were the years when the economic development suffered a slow down all over the world. Weisbrot et al, 2001 think it the period of diminished progress. The 2nd oil price increase of 1979, globalization and flow of capital to third world countries and economic mismanagement have all been blamed for the decline Weisbrot et al, 2001. The IMF figures of real per capita GDP (in constant 2000 US$) shows that when compared to 1960-80, almost in all cases per capita GDP declined during the two decades 0f 1980-2000. For the top GDP bracket (which includes Japan), the annual rate of GDP growth fell by 1%.Reference Weisbrot et al, 2001In this global period of economic decline, Japans economic withal went through a period of recession. When everyone was expanding Japan to continue the economic miracle, Japans economy had to face a number of financial crises, nearly of which in the hindsight appear to be of their own making. Agarwal, 2004 believes that the liberalization of financial system, the deregulation of banking sector, interests and capital flows were carried go forth without proper assessment of their impact on the domestic financial markets. galore(postnominal) financial institutions came to the verge of bankruptcy and most of these had to be bailed out to prevent an economic crisis.Some analysts in Agarwal Agarwal, 2001 believe that unlike United States which stepped into to save the economy from savings and Loan, Japans Ministry of Finance failure to intervene and making the financial institutions sell their assets to account for hundreds of billion dollars worth of non performing loans is responsible for the economic crisis of Japan during the mid-nineties.In addition to the financial problems and banking sector near insolvency, the economic experts identified Weak economic activity, low productivity and high prices as more or less of the reasons for stagnation of economy. Japans dwindling working age people means that there will be fewer workers available for economic activity.The domestic financial policies, a reducing in exports collectible to a global economic down trend resulted in an average growth rate of 1.7% during 1990s CIA sparing Report, 2005. In the aftermath of September 11 crisis, the slowing down of US, European and Asian economies has not helped the export establish Japanese economy and during 2000-3 Japans economy stagnated during this period.During the first half of 2004 Japans economy began to show the sign of recovery. It was the first time that the economic figure gave reason for optimism for Japans economy during almost a decade Japan declared a growth rate of 5.25% (seasonally adjusted annual figure). This figure was largely collect to the new economic factors presentlyadays emerging in the world economy, the fast festering Chin ese economy. Slower growth in domestic machinery demand and reduction in orders from mainland chinaware resulted in an overall growth rate of 2.25%. Suddenly the economic pundits have become extremely optimistic about Japans economic growth in the forthcoming years. The earlier estimates of 3.4% growth for 2005 have now been upgraded by International Monetary Fund (IMF) to 4.5% IMF Predicts, 2005.Economics believe that due to pressures of being a democracy, Japan chose not to make hard choices the banks were forced to hide the non recoverable loans and were obliged to throw good money after sorry to appear to be solvent. The government borrowed heavily from the public and now the debt stands at 160% of GDP CIA Economic Report, 2005. Japan opted to ignore the option of writing off bad debts and using inflation to overcome the problem and used monetary tactics of accumulation of capital, which to most economist has cost them a longer than pass judgment period of economic decline. T he position now is that the banks are in a strong financial position and are generally solvent. The economic recovery from now on can be expected to be on a sound footing Jerram, 2004.ECONOMIC FORECASTINGThe science (or Art) of forecasting the economic future tense of a country especially a long term forecast is still an uncertain art. The parameters required for the input can and do change over the forecast period. Artis, 1996 analyzed the economic forecasts error in pre-1983 and post-1983 period to show that the forecasting has not significantly improved during the two periods. While the economic parameters for most of the developing countries are not available in the required detail, for the developed countries it is normally not a major problem, yet the accuracy of the forecast varies by about 1% which is almost 30% out when we recognize that actual growth rate is around 2.75% The difficult Art of predict, 1996. It has to be appreciated that some of the factors involved in eco nomic growth are so unpredictable that they cannot be possibly included in economic forecasting, factors such as oil price shocks, unification of two Germany, September 11 terrorist attack, natural disasters like floods in New Orleans and Kashmir earthquakes cannot be factored into economic forecasts. The error of 1% in predicting economic trends is an average, in many cases IMF and OECD have been quite accurate in their predictions and the economic forecasting continues to have the confidence of economic planners to use it as a basis of international business as well as for providing planning information to the national economies.METHODOLOGIES OF ECONOMIC FORECASTINGClements and Henry, 2002 and Mizon, 2002 present excellent reviews of economic forecasting techniques. Clements and Henry, 2002 give a detailed explanation of statistical modeling and techniques for generating forecasts. Reasons for errors in macroeconomic forecasts are also covered as also are methods of evaluating for ecasts generated by different methods. The reasons for forecast failure are explained in a non-technical language by Hendry Ericsson, 2001.Arsham, 2005 is an excellent reference manual available online for economic forecast modeling. The Forecasting method covered by Arsham, 2005 include Economic Indicators, Economic Projections, Compound Growth Rate, Time Series Projection, Time Series using Ordinary least Square (OLS) Method, Visual Time Series Projections, Forecasting with Smoothing Techniques and Forecasting with Econometric Models.japan ECONOMY IN 20 YEARSJapans economy has overcome the difficulties of the last decade. The growth rate from 2004 is expected to be a healthy 3%. In 2004 Japan achieved a growth rate of 2.25%. The IMF forecast for 2005 and 2006 is an economic growth rate of 4.5%. The worse appears to be over but for future economic growth, Japan has to ensure that its national debt is reduced, the impact of demographic factors is minimize and its exports and overse as turnout interest are maintained.DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORSOne of the major factors being identified as potential hazard to future economic development of Japan is its aging population. Japan has an excellent health care system. The life expectancy in Japan is among one of the highest in the developing countries. According to the population statistics 20% of Japans population is now 65 years or over.The problem is that the Japans population is not being replenished by the new births at the required rate. The fertility rate has dropped to 1.3 children per woman which is well below the replacement level. The concern that Japans economy weakened by the recession of more than a decade may be overburdened by the problems of manpower deficit, paying old age benefits to the high percentage of aged citizens. The labor force is likely to shrink by 0.7% Campbell, 2003 a year between 2000 and 2025 and may well seriously effect the economic development during the next 20 years. The problem is tha t the life style Japanese have got accustomed to does not encourage child bearing to have the hope of making up the present shortfall in foreseeable future. A survey of Japanese women showed that only 7% of Japanese women saw child bearing is a congenial experience compared to 60-70% women in other countries Campbell, 2003. This means that Japans population is likely to continue its trend of declining working age group and an increasing population of 65 years and over.The fiscal implication of the aging population would require a change in the pension system. The present system of pay-as-you-go would mean that keen aging effect on public finances for 2000 to 2030 could be debt equal to 190% of 2000 GDP The United Nation Population Development calculations estimate that if the present situation does not improve, by 2025 Japan will have an average age of 50 years. The population of 65 years and over will be 30% of the total population. The NUPD paints a bleak picture where due to d ecline in birth rate the proportion of children under 15 will be the same as those of people 80 years and over. This is stark statistics indeed and there is no doubt that Japan will have to take move to encourage population growth rate to around 3% per annum. However, most social scientists believe that this doom day forecast can be avoided. In the near term Campbell argues that the gradual decline rate of 0.7% is manageable and the economy can cope with this without undue strain.Campbell contends that older people will not be a burden on state, the pension premium for the working population may have to be increased to support the pension schemes but it is incredible to impede the economy. He points out that United States spend 13% of GDP on health care while Japan spent 7.8% for providing a break in degree of health care to its population.Usui believes that women are still not participating in the economy to the extent they could and in case of labor shortage they would f ly the coop a more active role in the labor market to remove the labor shortage. She also points out to the useful role senior citizens bid in upbringing of their grand children releasing parents for a more active economic role. The population growth rates can thus be achieved without removing women from the workforce for an extended period.The demographic dilemma is certainly a cause for concern for Japans economy but it appears that Japan will be able to cope with the shortage during the next 20 years. Japan has not been very receptive to the guest workers for run into its manpower requirements but a future shortage may change that situation. Increased productivity, late retirement, more participant of women in work force and possibility of using foreign workers are some of the options that can be used to meet the manpower requirement of the economy. Japan has the highest number of robots in use in the world CIA Report on Japan Economy, 2005, the mechanization is another solut ion to the manpower shortage.However, the real solution in the long term is to encourage population growth through incentives and child support. Negative population growth is a problem in many developed countries and solutions are being found to prevent it from holding the economic development.CHINA AS AN locomotive engine FOR JAPANS ECONOMYJapans economic miracle was greatly helped by the exports to United States. As Japans economy developed it was able to find additional partners in Middle East, Europe and in developing countries. The global economic decline during 1980-2000 reduced the pace of economic development in Japan. Chinas economic miracle during the last few years has been largely responsible for the revival of Japans economy.India is also posting impressive economic growth rate during the last few years. Japans technological advantage, its competitiveness and its participation in ASEAN places Japan in an advantageous position in helping develop these economies News Ite m, 2004. The recent revival of Japans economy has in part been attributed to its exports to China. At present the main exports to China are of sophisticated parts. Many of the Japans giant corporations are building new facilities in Japan to make products for China and other markets.China has made tremendous progress since a change in its political system. Its foreign trade has grown by double digits for many years. China is now the third largest occupation country in the world and its exports to United States were around $150 billion last year putting China frontwards of Japan in the inclination of countries exporting to USA Herman, 2005. Many observers believe that this baron be a threat to Japans economy. But China and Japan, at least for now see this as a window of luck for developing their economies. China needs Japans technology and Japan recognizes China as an opportunity to reduce its production cost by using cheap labor available in China.China will perhaps welcome Ja pans investment even more than investment from US as Japanese investment does not come with a dose of speeches urging China to crystallize its political system China is encouraging direct investment from developed countries and Japan has already built plants in Japan to lower its labor be and stay competitive in the international markets. Japan-China cooperation in the economic filed appears to be in the interest of both countries. China has an advantage in labor costs and for the foreseeable future China will need the advance Japanese technology to meet its development goals.China is now the second largest market for Japans export and it appears that for the next decade or two China- Japan trade will continue to grow for their mutual benefit. Chinas GDP of $1.7 trillion is only 13% of that of United States and about one third of that of Japan Wang, 2005. China has a population of more than a billion and it is tidy up that the scope of development in China is enormous.After China agreed to the one-country two-system policy and Hong Kong came under its political control, countries like Singapore, Korea and Japan built considerable production facilities to China to benefit from the cheap labor costs. Hong Kong, of course being a political part of China moved many of its labor intensive industries to China. This has benefited China in boosting its exports. It has been estimated that 60% of Chinese export in 2004 came from the foreign invested enterprises. The profits of Japanese enterprises in China, of course benefit Japan too. It is clear that both China and Japan are using trade to each others advantage. What is not well known is that China is not only the fastest growing market for Japan but also for the United States.The Kyoto protocol agreed to keep India and China out of the developed countries list and as such they are not expected to limit green house gases. Although United States has also not agreed to the Kyoto Protocol, it appears that Chinese econ omy can continue to develop, at least for the time being without the worries for limiting green house gases. Absence of application of Kyoto Protocol would also be advantageous for Japanese companies working in China.JAPANS DEBT AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTThe total debt of Japan is nearly 160% of its GDP CIA Economic Report on Japan, 2005. Most of Japanese debt is however congenital. Us Foreign debt is already approaching the internal debt of Japan and it has been estimated that by 2010 US will owe as much to the international lenders as Japan owes to its internal lenders, Japanese people. Although the difference in economic sizes of the two countries is enormous and it is not correct to compare Japan and US on the same economic eggshell but it does give us an idea that the debt that Japan built during the recession years may not hold it from future development. The demography, the huge debt problem and rise of competitive China are some of the factors Japan will have to contend to mak e economic progress.As the editorial in Rediscovering Japan declination 2003 say that with the revival of Japans economy economic pundits are once again discovering that Japan has the competitive strength to bounce back. The editorial said that that Japan is still the world second largest economy and it has streamlined itself to meet the emerging challenges from Korea and Japan. It urges US CEOs to be not influenced by media misperception and to take Japan seriously. Japan is far too important to be ignored, it said.THE ECONOMIC FORECAST FOR NEXT 20 YEARSThe Editorial from Rediscovering Japan is perhaps the best note to cease this article. Japan has the potential to develop and compete with the new emerging economies it had the ability to become energy efficient to stay competitive after the energy crisis of 1973 and 1979 and the new energy prices will probably be more of a headache for gas guzzling economies of the west. Japan has invested in its people and while other countries might build plants to manufacture Japanese cars for the present, Japan has the foresight to invest in the research and development for energy efficient vehicles possibly electric to stay ahead of the competition.Suzuki, 2004 presented medium term economic forecast for Japan (2004-2010), estimating the economic development rate to remain in the range of 2% per annum. Their forecast is however based on an oil price estimate of $28 per barrel, which we now know is more than twice that. Their assumption regarding improvement in export was also sooner conservative. The economic forecasting is poor in estimating up and down turns. Suzuki analysis had projected 2% growth rate for 2004 and 2005, which was actually 2.25% for 2004 and 4.5% estimated for 2005.Kosai and Ito, 1999 estimate that the economy growth rate for the period 2000-2025 will be 1.8% and as the economic forecast for such a long period of a habit of being out by an average 1% we can safely expect Japan to develop during the next 20 years.Japanese have proved themselves capable of meeting economic challenges presented to them. No one would have believed that Japan had the capability of bouncing back from the ravages of the 2nd World War and develop to an extent where it is seen as a threat to the other economies. 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